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1
The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and ...
Hertwig, R.
;
Benz, B.
;
Krauss, Stefan
. - : Universität Regensburg, 2008
Abstract:
According to the conjunction rule, the probability of A and B cannot exceed the probability of either single event. This rule reads and in terms of the logical operator ∧, interpreting A and B as an intersection of two events. As linguists have long argued, in natural language “and” can convey a wide range of relationships between conjuncts such as temporal order (“I went to the store and bought some whisky”), causal relationships (“Smile and the world smiles with you”), and can indicate a collection of sets rather than their intersection (as in “He invited friends and colleagues to the party”). When “and” is used in word problems researching the conjunction fallacy, the conjunction rule, which assumes the logical operator ∧, therefore cannot be mechanically invoked as a norm. Across several studies, we used different methods of probing people’s understanding of and-conjunctions, and found evidence that many of those respondents who violated the conjunction rule in their probability or frequency judgments ...
Keyword:
370 Erziehung, Schul- und Bildungswesen
;
510 Mathematik
;
Conjunction fallacy; Pragmatic and semantic inferences; Rationality
URL:
https://dx.doi.org/10.5283/epub.34273
https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/id/eprint/34273
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2
The conjunction fallacy and the meanings of and
Hertwig, R.
;
Benz, B.
;
Krauss, Stefan
. - : Elsevier, 2008
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